The sealing lip decides
A suction cup has two jobs: it seals against the surface, and it transmits the force. Both depend on the sealing lip. If it does not seat all the way round, air leaks in and the vacuum collapses – however large the vacuum generator is.
For the calculation, the effective area inside the seated lip counts. It is smaller than the area from the nominal diameter because the lip deforms under load. The manufacturer’s holding force figure is therefore more reliable than one’s own calculation from the outside diameter.